How Deborah Birx intentionally misled Donald Trump and the American people to implement months of lockdowns in the United States

In Deborah Birx's own words

The current data indicate that lockdowns were either ineffective or even destructive to the public health in the United States and in other countries that tried them. This is consistent with decades of scientific consensus within public health that existed prior to the pandemic. The most compelling data come from Sweden, which had the least restrictive COVID-19 policies of any advanced country in the world:

How such catastrophic policies were implemented worldwide will be discussed in other posts. But one of the most critical pieces of evidence comes from one of the major lockdown architects, Deborah Birx herself. Indeed, her 2022 memoir is much more honest than it was wise. And this is what makes it such a startling and important source of historical information. In this post, I will be posting all relevant extracts in full.

To summarize what is to follow, Deborah Birx boasted in her memoir about how she manipulated and misled Trump into implementing lockdowns in the United States. The original “two weeks to slow the spread” was in fact a ruse: it had been planned from the beginning to extend these weeks into many months. Birx boasts that it was a motte and bailey, an attempt to lull Americans in acquiescence with promises of a short lockdown, to be followed by months of brutal lockdowns once they had agreed to the initial lockdown. Once he detected her deception, Trump furiously turned on Birx, leading to her fall from grace in the White House [1].

Now, in her own words. Enjoy (or be horrified):

"On Monday and Tuesday [March 9th and 10th, 2020]... we worked simultaneously to develop the flatten-the-curve guidance I hoped to present to the vice president at week’s end. Getting buy-in on the simple mitigation measures every American could take was just the first step leading to longer and more aggressive interventions. We had to make these palatable to the administration by avoiding the obvious appearance of a full Italian lockdown. ...

"For the rest of the week in our task force meetings, I slipped in oblique references to future recommendations. For example, I’d present a graph that read, “Encourage your employee to . . .” followed by suggestions about how to keep the workplace safe, ratcheting up the urgency of my language incrementally. Bit by bit, I moved the pieces on the board in advance of delivering the full flatten-the-curve message. I wasn’t making slashing attacks with bishops or rooks. I was subtly moving my pawns, not wanting to put anyone in a defensive posture too soon. ...

“Knowing the objections to the flatten-the-curve measures that were sure to come from the economics side, we decided to take these on directly. ... [We told the story that] the sooner they adopted and stuck with these measures, the sooner businesses could fully reopen. It would be a win for the “consumer” and a win for business owners. ...

"[T]he presence of the word regulation in the guidance would immediately have ended all our shutdown efforts. The guidance would never have made it past the White House gatekeepers. We therefore constantly emphasized that we were making “recommendations,” not establishing rules. This principle would guide our approach and our messaging within the task force, with the administration, and with the public.

"The key was to establish a serious tone and let the states use the guidelines to justify more aggressive action. The White House would “encourage,” but the states could “recommend” or, if needed, “mandate.” ... The fact that the guidelines would be coming from a Republican White House gave political cover to any Republican governors skeptical of federal overreach and would lead to most states’ implementing clear regulations themselves. ...

"My next move in the ongoing chess game was to quietly convene an ad hoc group at my home. On Saturday, March 14, Joe Grogan, Steve Redd, Tony Fauci, and Tom Frieden joined me. ... The objective of this meeting was ... to position ourselves to block any of the president’s escape routes. If all our pieces were aligned properly, he’d have no choice but to agree to our flatten-the-curve measures. ... 

"On Sunday, I would meet with the vice president before the afternoon’s task force meeting. In that private session, I hoped to get him on board with the recommendations we were drafting. With Vice President Pence in position, the president’s options would be even more limited. Going against the man he himself had put in charge of the task force wouldn’t look good, and the media were sure to get wind of how things played out.

"To arrive at “fifteen days,” we had relied on the CDC’s estimates of this virus’s full transmission cycle... Fifteen days was the minimum required to have any impact. I left the rest unstated: that this was just a starting point. 

"[Soon, however,] I wondered if I’d oversold the notion that the guidelines would be low-cost, low-impact. ...

"No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it. Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them. ...

"[Then, on April 3, 2020, after we had persuaded the president to extend the lockdowns to 30 days, he said to me], “We will never shut down the country again. Never.” President Trump’s tone was emphatic, edged with agitation. Furrowing his brow, he concentrated his full attention on me. His pupils narrowed into hardened points of anger. ...

"I felt the blood drain from my face, and I shivered slightly. .. I didn’t know what precisely had brought about his change of heart, or who had convinced him I was wrong, but his belief in me—in the science, the analyses, the graphs that had gotten the thirty-day extension approved—seemed to have disappeared nearly overnight. His stern look suggested I’d betrayed him, misled him somehow."

Indeed.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Silent-Invasion-Administration-Covid-19-Preventing/dp/B09K8K572V